Democratic Primary Predictions
In the spirit of all those "my predictions for 2008" posts that we see at the beginning of every year, here are my my predictions for the rest of this Democratic primary season. I'm really just writing them down here as an exercise in fun. I want to be able to look back and see how I did when the primary is over.
My predictions are:
- The primary will not go all the way to the convention as everyone is predicting.
- Sometime in the next four weeks, between now and the Pennsylvania primary, an agreement will be reached to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida.
- The delegates will not be seated according to the election results, but rather as some sort of arrangement between the candidates, with Hillary taking a slight advantage in delegates. Something like a 60/40 split, but don't hold me to the exact percentage. This keeps both candidates more or less happy with the agreement.
- Obama is trailing Hillary by 12 points in Pennsylvania as of this posting. By the Pennsylvania primary, he will cut the lead to somewhere close to the polling margin of error. Let's say if the margin of error is 4% on the last poll taken, he will be 4 or 5 points under her by the time Pennsylvanians vote.
- Obama then wins Pennsylvania by a very small margin. I'll guess 51% of the vote.
- Hillary then reluctantly withdraws from the race at the insistence of party leadership.
I'll go on record as an Obama supporter in the interest of full disclosure. Feel free to accuse me of wishful thinking. However, I have reasons for each of the points above, having thought about this a lot lately. But again, I'm just posting this for fun to see if I get close.
Posted by deryck on March 19, 2008
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